A recent report from United Nations (UN) states that global temperatures are now expected to reach at least 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the Paris Agreement’s target of 1.5°C¹. However, the report also highlights that temperatures could return to 1.5°C in this century if the world takes swift and consistent climate action.  

Over the past month, reports have affirmed that this climate action can be taken in a cost-effective way, whilst also creating cost savings for consumers.  

For more about these stories, along with positive milestones in renewable energy, read on below:

Long-term wholesale electricity prices increased during the first half of September, before reducing in the second half of the month, continuing to be influenced by geopolitical tensions and low gas storage levels.  

Long-term wholesale electricity prices for winter 2026/2027, as well as annual contract prices for October 2026 (which reached its highest level since April 2022), April 2027, and October 2027, increased due to: 

• Houthis, a militant group from Yemen, seizing control of two Red Sea islands, near the Bab al-Mandab strait, potentially impacting oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supply availability 

• Low winter gas storage 

• Continued uncertainty around the availability of LNG due to the ongoing Israel/US-Iran conflict. 

During the second half of the month, renewed negotiations between the US and Iran resulted in greater confidence in gas supply availability, and reductions in gas prices. Alongside strong renewable generation forecasts, this eased the impact of low winter gas storage and brought down annual contract prices for October 2026.  

Prices from summer 2027 remained relatively stable, though annual prices for October 2027 increased. Whilst immediate winter supply uncertainty eased, longer-term risks about supply and infrastructure continued to cause higher prices. 

Short-term wholesale electricity prices experienced some significant fluctuations across the month, and were heavily influenced by uncertainty over gas supply. 

In early September, day-ahead wholesale electricity prices almost doubled, despite wind generation averaging more than 12GW, and generation from gas falling within Great Britain’s generation mix. This increase was due to increasing risks to fuel supply as a result of the ongoing Israel/US-Iran conflict, as well as reduced electricity imports from Europe (with an interconnector out of use) and lower nuclear availability. Month-ahead and quarter-ahead electricity prices also increased during this period. 

By the end of the month, gas prices had decreased and renewable generation improved, which brought down short-term wholesale electricity prices. Despite occasional spikes in prices (occurring when wind output decreased below 3GW), the overall trend was downward during the later part of the month.

Looking ahead, wholesale electricity prices are likely to see fluctuations.

Increases in electricity prices could be expected as a result of: 

• Low gas storage levels, with EU gas storage levels at their lowest in five years. This increases the risk of lower available supply during winter, especially as demand for heating rises. 

• Reduced Norwegian hydropower generation, due to low water levels. Water levels at the hydro plants that supply the interconnector that transports electricity to the UK are just over 51% full, compared to 67% this time last year. If water levels get too low, generation and resulting supply availability will be impacted. 

• The Super El Niño in the Pacific, which is already impacting global weather patterns. This could increase the risk of colder conditions across Europe during the later half of winter, increasing heating demand and potentially electricity prices. 

However, factors that may help to reduce electricity prices include: 

• The direct negotiations between the US and Iran, with the possibility of easing sanctions, may help reduce the conflict’s contribution to electricity prices. However, any changes in these negotiations may cause prices to increase again. 

• Recent forecasts predict higher wind generation than previously expected, which could help to reduce short-term wholesale electricity prices. 

• Indications that there will be a sufficient generation margin to meet demand over the winter, which came from the National Energy System Operator’s (NESO’s) Early Winter Outlook² and may help to reduce short-term electricity prices, due to less reliance on purchasing imported electricity. 

Prices for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO) certificates have remained relatively stable over September, with reduced demand from some suppliers and high supply of REGO certificates keeping prices low. 

In an energy system powered by intermittent renewable energy, it is crucial that consumers are able to be flexible with their energy usage. Organisations can take advantage of available revenue and cost-saving opportunities through flexibility markets, which offer financial incentives for consumers to provide flexibility to the grid.  

For October’s Bryt Insight, we’re spotlighting the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), an ancillary support service operated by the National Energy System Operation (NESO). DFS can be triggered when there is strain on the national grid, asking consumers to shift, increase or limit their electricity usage to help balance the grid, whilst paying them for their participation. 

Suppliers, aggregators and asset owners can bid their flexibility from on-site assets in daily auctions. Contracts are for 30-minute periods of flexibility, which will be delivered within 24 hours of the contract being awarded, and there is no obligation to participate after registering. 

You can see the prices accepted for DFS auctions across 2026 here³.

British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS)

The UK Government has recently published details regarding application eligibility for the new British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS). The scheme aims to reduce electricity costs for eligible manufacturers, with potential electricity cost savings of up to £40 per megawatt hour (MWh). The scheme will take effect from April 2027, and is expected to run until 2035, with a review in 2030. 

Organisations who can benefit from the scheme include those manufacturing in the Industrial Strategy’s growth sectors (referred to as the ‘IS-8’)⁴, as well as foundational manufacturing industries who supply these sectors and meet electricity intensity thresholds. Eligible organisations will be exempt from various electricity policy costs, such as the Renewables Obligation, Capacity Market and Feed-in Tariff charges, helping to lower electricity bills. 

For those who may be eligible, the application window is now open and will close on 30th November 2026. You can find out more about the BICS scheme and how to apply, here⁵. You can also sign up to find out more information in a webinar from the Government, here⁶. 

Recent research has suggested that the UK’s next Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction, Allocation Round 8 (AR8), could procure significantly more renewable generation than ever before, and deliver long-term cost savings for consumers. Compared to the record-breaking 8.4GW secured in last year’s AR7 auction, AR8 could procure as much as 19GW of renewable energy capacity, including offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar power. This could be a crucial contribution towards the UK’s Clean Power 2030 targets, which include 43-50GW of offshore wind, 27-29GW of onshore wind, and 45-47GW of solar power. 

As well as contributing to the UK’s wider decarbonisation targets, the research estimates AR8 could deliver net savings to consumers of more than £11 billion by 2050, largely due to renewable energy displacing more expensive fossil fuel generation. This renewable generation is expected to reduce the cost of wholesale electricity by approximately £51 billion, which will be partly offset by CfD costs of an estimated £38 billion, as well as £2 billion of additional costs. 

It’s encouraging to see confirmation that renewable energy deployment can support affordability for consumers in the long-term, as well as a decarbonised and more resilient energy system. You can read more about this research, here⁷. 

New analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted electrification as a key method for meeting global energy demand in a cost-effective way, whilst improving global energy security and reducing emissions. 

The report was prepared ahead of COP31 to inform discussions on a global electrification target, which would aim for electricity to account for 35% of final global energy consumption (the energy delivered to and used by consumers) by 2035. The IEA’s report has found that technologies already available could cost-effectively enable electricity to meet 33% of global final energy consumption by 2035. This would be a significant increase from the 23% achieved today, placing the target within reaching distance. 

Global interest in increasing electrification has been propelled by the current Strait of Hormuz energy crisis, as countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and improve their energy security. A faster-electrification scenario could reduce global energy import bills by $400 billion by 2035, compared to 2025 levels, and oil demand would decline significantly, driven by increased EV adoption. In this scenario, emissions from sectors such as transport, buildings and industry could fall by 40% by 2035, which would align with global climate targets. 

To read more about this research, visit here⁸.

£90 million investment announced by the UK Government to support new and upgraded heat networks 

The Government has announced a £90 million investment in the expansion and upgrading of heat networks across England and Wales. Heat networks provide heat to multiple buildings from a central source, such as by taking excess heat from one building to heat water, which will be carried to other buildings through pipes. In doing so, they utilise heat that has already been generated and reduce reliance on gas generation. This investment aims to improve energy efficiency, and deliver cheaper, low-carbon heating to 750,000 homes, with businesses also benefitting.  

The largest project that will receive funding from this investment is a new Thames heat network, which will receive £41 million and plans to provide heat to 650,000 homes – unlocking £5 billion of investment in London’s heat network infrastructure. In addition, £9.7 million has been committed towards Bradford, £3.9 million for Solihull, and £11.5 million for Bexley and Greenwich, with over 2,000 jobs supported through these projects. 

To read more about this news, visit here⁹.

MPs encourage the UK Government to update messaging around the energy transition, to build public support

MPs on the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee are encouraging the UK Government to evolve the way that it talks about the energy transition, due to the risk that inconsistent messaging and a focus on ‘net zero’ terminology could damage public support. To improve this messaging, the committee suggests a cross-departmental communications strategy focusing on conveying the benefits of the energy transition to the public and businesses, such as energy security, lower bills and financial opportunities. 

With more focus on the tangible benefits that the energy transition can bring to the public, to businesses, and to the UK as a whole, it’s hoped that this updated messaging will encourage increased public support. To find out more, visit here¹⁰. 

Key construction milestone achieved at Statkraft’s first UK solar scheme 

A new milestone has been surpassed for the UK’s onshore wind project pipeline, with a record 50.1GW of total capacity in all stages of development. 3GW has been added to the UK’s onshore wind pipeline over the past year, with Scotland making up 75% of all onshore wind capacity in development and operation. Planning submissions for onshore wind projects has also reached new records, with applications 47% higher in 2025 than the previous record from 2013. This notably exceeds the Clean Power 2030 pathway, which aims for 27-29GW of onshore wind capacity by 2030. 

With the upcoming AR8 CfD auction, it’s hoped that procurement for onshore wind projects will further increase. To find out more about this milestone, visit here¹¹.

Statkraft released their annual energy report, ‘Green Transition Scenarios 2026’ 

Statkraft have launched its Green Transition Scenarios 2026 energy report, exploring 4 plausible pathways to 2050 and the choices shaping energy security, competitiveness and resilience.   

The report highlights that, by 2050, global electricity demand could grow by 48% to more than 100%, with renewables supplying 62-80% of global electricity generation.  

To access Statkraft’s full report, visit here¹². 

Key construction milestone achieved at Statkraft’s first UK solar scheme 

Statkraft has reached a key milestone in the construction of its Soay Solar Farm as the first solar panels on the site are installed – making it the first of Statkraft’s UK solar schemes to begin construction. The project is located in East Yorkshire, and when completed, its 49.9MW capacity will create enough solar energy to provide power for the equivalent of 21,700 homes. 

Statkraft has considered the ecology and biodiversity of the site throughout development. Roughly one third of the site will work to enhance habitats and provide areas for new planting, which will improve biodiversity in these areas by 130%. Statkraft has collaborated with the Bumblebee Conservation Trust to receive guidance on design of these habitats, as well as the most suited plant species to include, and how best to manage this in the long term. 

The solar farm will also be strategically co-located alongside Thornton Greener Grid Park, a site which consists of a 200MW two-hour Battery Energy Storage System (BESS). This will enable the solar farm’s renewable energy to be stored and used when most needed to support the grid. 

Soay Solar Farm, alongside Thornton Greener Grid Park, will be key components of Statkraft’s broader strategy in the UK, and will help the UK to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and become more energy independent. To read more about this milestone, visit here¹³. 

If you have any questions about how these updates might affect you or would like to find out more, our team of experts are happy to provide further insight. You can contact them on 0330 053 8620 or here.