Every year, Statkraft publishes its Green Transition Scenarios report, exploring how the global energy system could evolve into the future. As part of the Statkraft Group, we’re sharing its most recent Green Transition Scenarios report, which looks at the four plausible pathways through the energy transition to 2050:

• the Green Transition Scenario, in which climate action is a priority, and global collaboration and greater political stability help to accelerate the energy transition.
• the Uneven Progress Scenario, in which political changes mean some countries remain stable in their progress through the energy transition, whilst others face swings and reversals, creating a fragmented transition. Energy transition technologies continue to develop in this scenario, but at a slower, more varying pace than in the Green Transition Scenario.
• the Gridlock Scenario, which sees a constrained transition in a world with political gridlock, high public debt, and weak economic growth, resulting in limited investment in decarbonisation efforts. Renewable generation continues to grow in this scenario, but infrastructure and associated constraints slow progress.
• the Unrest Scenario, where political tension, economic disruption and protectionism slows momentum in the energy transition, though competitive renewable technologies do continue to expand.

Shifting energy priorities

In the current energy landscape, whilst decarbonisation remains a major objective, the conversation is increasingly shifting towards energy security, affordability, competitiveness and economic resilience. Statkraft notes that countries and organisations are not only investing in renewable energy because of sustainability, but also because it makes strategic and financial sense. With energy security now a major driver of action, electrification, powered by renewables, is seen as the main route to lessen our reliance on fossil fuels and reduce exposure to volatile fuel markets.

The report’s key findings include:

• Global electricity demand could increase by 48%-100% by 2050.
• Renewable energy could supply 62%-80% of global electricity generation by 2050.
• Global energy-related CO₂ emissions are expected to peak within the next five years, and could then reduce between 20%-56% from today’s level by 2050.
• The cost of battery, wind and solar technologies are all expected to continue to reduce over the coming decades.

Electrification is a key driver

Each of the possible scenarios saw strong growth in electricity demand between now and 2050, due to the increased uptake of on-site technologies, the electrification of heat, transport, and industrial processes, and AI data centre growth.

Wind and solar generation are predicted to provide the majority of this new electricity demand globally and, by using renewable energy to meet this growing demand, countries can reduce their reliance on imported fossil fuels, strengthening energy security.

An integrated energy system

As larger amounts of renewable energy are added to global electricity systems, infrastructure to support this is increasingly important in enabling electricity to be connected, moved, used, and stored effectively. Statkraft highlighted that on-site technologies such as storage solutions, digital infrastructure, charging networks, and interconnectors, supported by flexibility optimisation and balancing services, are all required to create an integrated power system fit for the energy transition.

Emissions are predicted to decline

Statkraft expects global energy-related emissions to peak within the next five years and then decline under all four scenarios, but also note that achieving global net zero emissions by 2050 is now more challenging than previously suggested, particularly in the Unrest Scenario. However, Statkraft predict there is a 67% chance of staying below a temperature increase of 2.2ºC-2.7ºC from pre-industrial levels, and that every small increment of temperature increase avoided matters in reducing the worst impacts of climate change.

Whilst it is still uncertain how quickly and evenly the transition could unfold, the long-term direction appears increasingly clear. The future will be more electric, powered by more renewables, in a more interconnected energy system than we know today.

To download and read Statkraft’s full Green Transition Scenarios 2026 report, visit here.