The continued heatwaves experienced across the summer in the UK and across Europe have demonstrated the impact that increasingly extreme weather has on public health, with high temperatures contributing towards a significant number of estimated ‘excess deaths’ in the UK¹. In July, the UK saw temperatures 3°C above the month’s usual average, with more days above 30°C than ever before², and the recent heatwave contributed to costing the UK economy over £1 billion in lower productivity in one month³.

With climate action and adaptation more important than ever, this month’s Bryt Insight highlights the positive impact of the UK’s progress towards its energy targets, despite potential challenges. We also cover the establishment of a taskforce for climate resilience and security, aimed to better prepare the nation for climate-related risks. You can find out more below:

Short-term wholesale electricity prices increased over July, with some day-to-day volatility. This was due to:

• Wind generation output, which was lower than in June. The second half of July also saw wind generation at 15% lower than in the first half of the month.
• Increased gas prices, following a lack of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) reaching the UK and Europe due to the Israel/US-Iran conflict. Additional gas was used to make up for the lack of wind generation, but as gas is typically more expensive, this brought up the price of wholesale electricity.
• Warmer weather continuing to reduce output from nuclear generation in France, as the river water used to cool the nuclear plants became too warm. Because of the reduced supply across Europe, this contributed towards higher electricity prices in the UK.

Announcements of peace deals for the Israel/US-Iran conflict, followed by more conflict, also contributed to the fluctuations in the cost of wholesale electricity, as the markets reacted to expectations of reduced availability of LNG.

The Israel/US-Iran conflict continued to be a major factor in long-term wholesale electricity prices throughout July, impacting the prices for the winter 2026 season and front annual electricity prices (which set 12-month prices from the start of the next electricity season). Electricity prices increased due to higher gas prices, which was because of a lack of availability. This lack of availability also caused concerns over the ability to replenish gas storage levels. With gas storage levels in the EU now close to the lowest seen in the last 5 years, these will need to be filled in preparation for increased winter demand.

Further ahead, long-term wholesale electricity prices for summer 2027 onwards are seemingly not currently being impacted by the Israel/US-Iran conflict, due to prospect that the conflict could be resolved by then.

These long-term wholesale electricity prices, for summer 2027 onwards, have seen some slight reductions as July progressed. This is partially due to news about extensions to the lifespans of three nuclear generation reactors in the UK, as these reactors make up almost 15% of the UK’s nuclear capacity, and will therefore provide more supply for the future.

Also contributing to lower prices for long-term wholesale electricity prices for summer 2027 onwards was the EU’s proposals to provide free carbon allowances to heavy industry, in exchange for emissions reduction plans. As these free carbon allowances would increase their availability, this could reduce carbon prices in the future. The price of carbon allowances impacts the cost of fossil fuel generation, with generators having to pay for allowances when they generate electricity from fossil fuels, so this contributed to lower long-term wholesale electricity prices.

Looking ahead, short-term wholesale electricity prices will likely be mainly driven by the availability of wind generation. If there is less wind generation, more gas generation will be required to meet demand, which would increase electricity prices due to current higher gas prices.

In addition, gas demand and prices could increase more if the transport of coal to the German coal power stations continues to be affected by the low water levels currently seen in the Rhine River, curtailing the transport of goods. This would mean that Germany has to rely on gas generation instead, which may increase demand and therefore potentially increase prices, especially with Europe’s gas storage as low as it currently is.

Winter 2026 electricity prices and front annual electricity prices will likely continue to be primarily driven by the Israel/US-Iran conflict and any risk to the availability of gas supplies. Long-term wholesale electricity prices, on the other hand, may continue to be more stable, with hope that the conflict will be resolved by then.

Prices for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO) certificates have decreased throughout July. This was due to expectations of increased renewable generation in future years, as well as sunnier weather increasing solar output in the near-term. This increased availability of REGO certificates brought prices down.

The current trajectory of progress towards the UK’s Clean Power 2030 targets indicate that they could fall short by five years, according to recent research. 83% of Britain’s electricity is forecasted to be coming from ‘clean’ sources by 2030, compared to the UK’s target of 95%. This is partly because four of the eight key technologies – offshore wind, onshore wind, solar and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) – are delayed in their progress to meet the UK’s requirements. To help accelerate their progress and increase capacity, the report highlights that the next rounds of the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme must significantly contribute towards the procurement of solar and onshore wind.

To manage this increase in renewables, upgrades to the grid will be needed, as well as increased uptake of BESS and flexibility optimisation. If the necessary grid upgrades aren’t implemented, 27TWh of renewable generation may have to be ‘turned down’ (i.e. curtailed) at specific periods by 2030, because the energy can’t be transported across the grid.

Despite the research highlighting the barriers to decarbonising the grid, these ambitious targets have galvanised the UK’s climate action in recent years, with records continuously being surpassed for renewable energy generation and on-site technology installations. This action is already having a positive impact in increasing the UK’s energy independence and shielding energy prices from fossil fuel price shocks. As Shauna Dubler from Energy UK highlighted at our recent event, the cost of achieving net zero is less expensive than a single energy price shock caused by increases in the cost of fossil fuels.

The research affirmed that even if the UK falls short of its targets, clear benefits from the progress made will still be felt across the country:

• Gas usage is expected to decrease by almost 40% by 2030 compared to 2024 levels, which will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 36% from current levels.
• Compared to current levels, household energy bills would be cut by roughly £40 per year by 2030, through accelerated progress towards Clean Power 2030 targets.
• Gas is expected to influence electricity prices less – it will set the price of wholesale electricity only less than half of the time, compared to 85% today, helping to protect bills from future energy price shocks.

The progress that has already been, and will be, made in the UK’s shift to a decarbonised grid by 2030 will help to create a more resilient, affordable and sustainable energy system for consumers, even if it falls short of the UK’s targets. Every bit of progress makes a difference, which is why it’s important to continue to drive change towards 2030 and beyond.

To read more about this research, visit here⁴.

The UK Government has launched a first-of-its-kind taskforce, made up of leading security, military and academic experts, which will help advise the Government on how to best respond to increasing climate risks. This will include considering how insurance and investment may be impacted by climate change, and the impact of global tensions on national concerns, including security and energy security challenges.

The new taskforce will assess any gaps in the UK’s preparedness for the impact of climate change and nature loss, and will determine the most serious climate-related risks to the UK’s security. The taskforce will also evaluate existing resilience measures and recommend further action across adaption and mitigation. If you’d like to find out more about how businesses are considering resilience against climate risks as part of their wider energy strategy, Samuel Bird explored the topic in our recent event, which you can read about in our event report.

To learn more about the new taskforce, visit here⁵.

Over 140,000 drivers transitioned to electric vehicles, with the support of the UK’s Electric Car Grant

The UK Government’s Electric Car Grant has helped more than 140,000 drivers transition to electric vehicles (EVs) within its first year. The scheme provides up to £3,750 off the price of new electric cars, helping to make the upfront cost of EVs more affordable for buyers. 30% of new car sales are now EVs, and they are now more affordable on average than new petrol cars⁶.

Incentives from schemes like the Electric Car Grant are an important part of supporting both individuals and business fleets to transition to electric vehicles, in the lead up to the phase out of new petrol and diesel cars. It’s positive to see that these policies are influencing prospective buyers to make the switch to cars with zero tailpipe emissions, helping the UK move closer to its target of achieving a net zero transport system by 2050. To find out more, visit here⁷.

Solar power made up a quarter of the EU’s energy for the first time in June

For the first month ever, a quarter of the EU’s power in June came from solar energy. 52TWh of energy was generated by solar across the month, surpassing the previous record of 47TWh (23%) of solar energy generated in May 2026. This is only the third time that solar has made up the biggest share of the EU’s energy.

With June’s heatwave increasing demand for cooling and causing challenges for other power sources⁸, it’s encouraging to see solar energy helping to meet demand across Europe, as a renewable source of power. Find out more about this record, here⁹.

Plans to double capacity for the UK’s largest offshore wind project

Plans have been unveiled to double capacity for the UK’s largest offshore wind farm, through replacing existing turbines at the end of their life with a smaller number of much larger turbines. The newer turbines will be much taller than the ones currently installed, standing at 250 meters, and therefore having a much bigger capacity at 1GW compared to 539MW. This means fewer wind turbines would need to be installed overall, reducing the number from 215 to 124. This could generate nearly double the energy generated than its current capabilities.

It’s important that the lifecycles of renewable generation assets are continuously improved, to make the most out of them and minimise the impact of new projects. The planning application for the project is expected to be submitted in December 2027, with the wind farm operational by 2035. To find out more, visit here¹⁰.

Community fund from Statkraft’s wind farm to go towards restoring waterwheel

The community fund from Statkraft’s Scottish Berry Burn wind farm has provided financial support for Knockando Woolmill Trust to upgrade and restore a 19th-century waterwheel¹¹, which is located in Speyside, Scotland. This restoration project will help to generate 67KWh of renewable power at the Mill every day.

The waterwheel was first in operation in the 1860s to drive production at the Mill, until the Mill utilised electricity in 1949. The restoration project is an example of how a mill can produce self-generated, renewable energy, thanks to the funding from a modern sustainable innovation.

Find Statkraft’s dedicated social post on the news, here¹².

Statkraft has announced investment in wind energy project in Brazil

Statkraft will invest in a 280MW onshore wind project, Gran Sul, which is located in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. This investment will contribute significant amounts of wind power to Brazil’s electricity system and strengthen Statkraft’s position in renewable energy generation in Brazil. The Gran Sul wind project is currently in the process of sourcing equipment and jobs for construction, which is expected to start in January 2027.

As climate change has global impacts, it’s great to see Statkraft be a leading player in renewable energy in Brazil. To read more about this update, visit here¹³.

If you have any questions about how these updates might affect you or would like to find out more, our team of experts are happy to provide further insight. You can contact them on 0330 053 8620 or here.