The start of December saw long-term wholesale electricity prices decrease. This was due to lower gas prices as a result of high levels of gas supply, with the price of gas still impacting the cost of electricity. Front annual electricity prices (which set 12 month prices from the start of the next electricity season), from April 2026 to March 2027, were at the lowest seen since February 2025.
In the second half of the month, long-term wholesale electricity prices increased, due to forecasts of colder weather and an expectation of increased demand for heating. This was exacerbated by reduced renewable output from less windy conditions, and more expensive gas generation used to meet demand.
The impact of carbon allowances on electricity prices
Electricity prices were also impacted by carbon allowances. In the first half of December, lower carbon allowance prices contributed to lower long-term wholesale electricity prices, whilst the second half of the month saw carbon allowances have the opposite impact, causing electricity prices to rise.
Carbon allowances are tradable permits, purchased by companies in more regulated industries to account for and limit the greenhouse gases (GHG) they emit. In the second half of December, the release of allowances for the new compliance year created a short-term surge in demand. This surge in demand was even higher due to changes in the rules for both the UK and EU’s emissions schemes. The aviation sector in the UK, which were previously given free allowances, now have to purchase allowances, whilst the shipping sector in the EU recently joined the carbon allowance scheme. Together, these changes in these industries raised demand for carbon allowances and caused prices to increase.
The price of carbon allowances impacts the cost of fossil fuels, as generators have to pay for allowances when they generate fossil fuel energy. In turn, this increase in allowance prices caused a rise in the cost of long-term wholesale electricity in the second half of December, as it meant any electricity generated from fossil fuels was more expensive, with fossil fuels still making up part of the UK’s fuel mix.