Statkraft, Europe’s largest renewable energy producer, has released its tenth annual energy report, the ‘Green Transition Scenarios’ report. The report explores the pace and possibilities of the global energy transition, highlighting how renewable energy, electrification and flexibility will shape the world’s energy systems. As part of the Statkraft Group, we wanted to share some key takeaways and findings from the report.

Statkraft’s findings are clear: the future is renewable and the energy transition is inevitable, with technologies like onshore wind, solar PV and electric cars more cost-competitive than ever. However, the pace of this transition is still dependent on geopolitical factors and global collaboration and action.

Statkraft projects the potential pathways for the global energy transition to 2050 across three possible scenarios:

1. The Green Transition Scenario, in which they describe an optimistic but feasible setting, where innovation, collaboration and policy change work to accelerate the energy transition.
2. The Delayed Transition Scenario, in which geopolitical tensions impede progress for the energy transition. Global emissions would continue to decline, with a desire for energy independence and cost-competitiveness driving electrification and renewable energy growth, although at a slower pace.
3. The Unrest Scenario, which sees a more significant delay to the energy transition, due to geopolitical hostility, amongst other challenges.

This year’s report provides an update on the current status of the energy transition, disclosing that, although the transition is accelerating, the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels now appears out of reach. However, with determination, speed and collective action, the report affirms that we can still keep global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Here are some of the report’s key findings:

• In 2024, global investment in renewable energy and related infrastructure was almost double the amount of investment in fossil fuels.
• Renewable energy generated more power globally than coal, for the first time.
• Solar and wind generation made up 57% of the global increase in electricity supply in 2024.
• In all three scenarios, emissions are predicted to decrease, and solar energy, wind energy, batteries and electric vehicles continue to thrive due to their cost-effectiveness.
• Global coal and oil demand also peak and decline in all three scenarios, although cost challenges for green hydrogen and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) means that gas demand remains strong for longer than initially forecasted.
• Due to the cost difficulties around these technologies, the report forecasts that hard-to-abate sectors, such as iron, steel, refineries and some long-distance transportation industries, may struggle to decarbonise.
• In the Green scenario, the increase in climate temperatures is kept below an increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. There is an increase of 2°C in the Delayed scenario, and in the Unrest scenario, geopolitical tension and isolation shifts focus away from climate action, leading to an increase of 2.4°C. This increase would mean dire consequences for societies and economies across the globe, Statkraft warns.
• Decreasing battery costs are contributing towards important flexibility capacity, but batteries must be supported with other sources of flexibility, such as interconnectors, demand flexibility and pumped hydro, in order to enable a reliable and stable energy system.

Statkraft’s report highlights a new global environment of increased geopolitical tension, less room for investment from governments, and higher costs for newer ‘clean’ technologies, where global competitiveness and energy security are driving factors. It is in this landscape that climate action across nations is more vital than ever. The report notes that expanding investment in renewable infrastructure, policy frameworks and flexibility solutions will be essential in order to accelerate the energy transition and limit the impact of climate change. However, the report is also clear that, in addition to renewable energy being crucial for reducing global emissions, investing in a renewable future makes financial sense, offering a more sustainable, secure and stable future for the world.

“The energy transition continues even in a more conflicted world. The market has spoken, and renewable energy is cost effective and reducing emissions at scale. And it’s doing it globally,” says Birgitte Ringstad Vartdal, CEO of Statkraft.

If you’d like to find out more about Statkraft’s Green Transition Scenarios 2025 report, visit here.